High-End Home Sales Show Signs of Fatigue in Northern California

Other counties hold steady, says Alain Pinel Realtors’ market index report
RISMEDIA, April 18, 2006?Sales of resale homes priced above $1.5 million and $2.5 million in some Northern California counties are showing signs of fatigue while others are holding steady, based on a first quarter report by Alain Pinel Realtors, which has 24 offices in the region and over 1,000 sales professionals.

According to public records gleaned from the leading multiple listing services in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Contra Costa and Alameda counties, overall units of homes sold above $2.5 million in the first quarter totaled 141 homes, compared with 150 homes sold in the same period a year ago — Jan. 1 to March 31.

Sales volume declined from $580.71 million for the 150 homes in the first quarter 2005 to $531.88 million this year, an 8 percent decline. At the $1.5 million to $2.499 million level, 575 homes sold in the seven counties in the first quarter this year, compared with 646 homes sold in that price range in the first quarter 2005, an 11 percent drop. Sales volume fell from $1.508 billion to $1.344 billion, also approximately an 11 percent decline. The figures show, however, that sale prices in the upper end are holding steady and are in fact, comparable on a year-to-year basis.

Concerning inventory, there were 570 homes for sale above $2.5 million at the end of the quarter, versus 490 at the end of March 2005, for a 16.5 percent increase in inventory. At $1.5 million to $2.499 million, inventory of homes listed for sale was up 11 percent, from 1,666 at the end of the first quarter 2005 to 1,870 homes in that price range by the close of the first quarter this year.

The data is a compilation of information provided to members of the multiple-listing services that serve Realtors in the region (SFMLS, REINFO and MAX-EBRD). For a county-by-county analysis of homes sold and listed for sale at the benchmark rates of $1.5 million and $2.5 million, please read the balance of the report:

Distinctive Homes & Estates Market Index

Source: Alain Pinel Realtors and Terradatum (www.Terradatum.com)

First Quarter 2006 Sales Performance DH&E marketplace

Seven Northern California Counties

Santa Clara County

Not much changed in high-end home sales in Santa Clara County in the first quarter this year compared with a year ago. During the first quarter of 2005 and first quarter 2006, 46 homes sold in each quarter for more than $2.5 million. The median price of homes sold for more than $2.5 million was off by only $70,000 — $2.90 million this year versus $2.97 million a year ago. The highest recorded price for a home sold in the county was $4.5 million, in Palo Alto. Inventory of homes for sale above $1.5 million is up, but not dramatically. There were 717 homes for sale at the end of the quarter for more than $1.5 million, a 4.85 percent increase from a year ago.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $144,355,640

Sold median: $2.90 million

Units Sold: 46

Highest Price: $4,500,000

City: Palo Alto

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $153,111,719

Sold median: $2.97 million

Units Sold: 46

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Listed: 717

Listed Median: $2,049,000

Units Sold: 207

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 684

Listed Median: $2,050,000

Units Sold: 242

San Mateo County

Five fewer homes in San Mateo County sold for more than $2.5 million in the first quarter this year (36 versus 41 in 1Q05) and the median sale price at this level declined by $145,000 — from $3.022 million during the first quarter 2005 to $3.075 million by the end of March this year (a 4.5 percent drop). The highest recorded price of a home sold in the county was $10.3 million, in Woodside. Inventory of homes listed for sale above $1.5 million was nearly identical — 280 at the close of the first quarter this year compared with 279 a year ago. The asking price for homes on the market increased $113,000, to $2.263 million, versus $2.150 million a year ago.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $133,829,260

Sold median: $3.075 million

Units Sold: 36

Highest Price: $10.3 million

City: Woodside

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $153,518,250

Sold median: 3.220 million

Units Sold: 41

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Listed: 280

Listed Median: $2,262,500

Units Sold: 122

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 279

Listed Median: $2,150,000

Units Sold: 136

Alameda County

The 36 homes offered for sale in Alameda County for more than $2.5 million may be a little more special than the 36 homes for sale at the end of the first quarter of 2005, because the listed median, or asking price, is up a considerable $434,500, or 15.2 percent, from $2.815 million at 1Q05 to $3.25 million at the end of March this year. That’s the most likely explanation in the different asking price, because otherwise sales of upscale homes in Alameda were comparable to the same period a year ago. Five homes in the county sold during the recent quarter for more than $2.5 million, versus six homes a year ago. The median sale price was $2.850 million, instead of $2.725 million, for a slight gain of $125,000. The highest recorded price for a home sold in the county during the quarter was in Piedmont, for $4.86 million. Inventory spiked for homes priced from $1.5 million to $2.499 million with 187 homes offered for sale compared with 142 homes on the market in this price range at the end of the first quarter 2005 — a 31 percent increase in inventory.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period: 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $16,135,530

Sold median: $2.850 million

Units Sold: 5

Highest Price: $4,860,530

City: Piedmont

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $16,708,000

Sold median: $2.725

Units Sold: 6

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period Q 2006

Listed: 187

Listed Median: $1,910,000

Units Sold: 50

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 142

Listed Median: $1,995,000

Units Sold: 47

Contra Costa County

Like neighboring Alameda County, the most noteworthy element at the upper end of the housing market in Contra Costa County at the end of the first quarter was the rise in inventory. Homes offered for more than $1.5 million jumped 35 percent from a year ago, when 235 homes were on the market at the end of the first quarter 2005, compared with 317 homes offered for sale at the end of March this year. The asking price for homes is off only slightly despite the rise in inventory, at $1.950 million versus $1.876 million a year ago. Seven homes sold in the county during the first quarter this year for more than $2.5 million, while 8 sold at this price point or more in the first quarter 2005. The highest recorded sale was in Orinda, at $3.25 million. The sold median increased $182,000, to $2.995 million compared with $2.813 million a year ago.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $20,630,000

Sold median: $2.995 million

Units Sold: 7

Highest Price: $3,250,000

City: Orinda

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $29,990,000

Sold median: $2.813 million

Units Sold: 8

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Listed: 317

Listed Median: $1,876,000

Units Sold: 65

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 235

Listed Median: $1,950,000

Units Sold: 61

Santa Cruz County

The median price of homes sold for more than $2.5 million in Santa Cruz County in the first quarter this year increased a healthy $198,000 compared with the same period a year ago ($2.896 million vs. $2.698 million); in both quarters, six homes sold at this benchmark price. The highest recorded sale price was a Watsonville home, which sold for $3.050 million. The were more homes on the market above $1.5 million at the end of March this year, with 82 homes for sale compared with the end of the first quarter 2005, when 68 homes were for sale at $1.5 million or greater. The asking price declined to $2.048 million, compared with $2.273 million at the end of the first quarter 2005.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $17,309,808

Sold median: $2.896 million

Units Sold: 6

Highest Price: $3,050,000

City: Watsonville

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $16,212,500

Sold median: $2.698 million

Units Sold: 6

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Listed: 82

Listed Median: $2,047,500

Units Sold: 18

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 68

Listed Median: $2,272,500

Units Sold: 18

Monterey County

Of the counties tracked by Alain Pinel Realtors, Monterey County showed the greatest signs of weakness in upscale home sales. The median sale price of homes above $2.5 million fell $220,000, or about 7 percent, to $3.275 million at the end of the quarter this year, compared with $3.495 million at the end of March in 2005. The price decline was even more dramatic in the $1.5 million to $2.499 million sector. The median sold price was $2 million during the first quarter this year, versus $2.463 million in 1Q05, for a nearly 19 percent drop. The highest recorded home sold was in Pebble Beach, for $15.896 million. Inventory on homes for sale priced above $1.5 million increased from 128 homes at the end of the first quarter 2005 to 159 homes by the end of March this year. And yet the listed median price of homes for sale above $1.5 million increased to $2.395 million, versus $2.210 million at the end of the first quarter 2005.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $101,405,350

Sold median: $3.275 million

Units Sold: 20

Highest Price: $15,896,350

City: Pebble Beach

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $89,151,705

Sold median: $3.495 million

Units Sold: 19

Monterey County

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Listed: 159

Listed Median: $2,395,000

Units Sold: 44

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 128

Listed Median: $2,210,000

Units Sold: 62

San Francisco County

The high-end housing market in San Francisco during the first quarter showed little change from the same period a year ago. During the period, 69 homes sold from $1.5 million to $2.499 million, compared with 80 a year ago, while 21 homes in the quarter sold for more than $2.5 million, compared with 24 during the first quarter of 2005. The median sale price increased slightly for the homes sold at $2.5 million or greater, to $3.4 million versus $3.225 million in same quarter a year ago. The highest recorded price for a San Francisco home sold in the quarter was $16.5 million. Inventory of homes for sale above $1.5 million is similar to a year ago, with 128 on the market at the end of March this year, versus 130 for sale at this benchmark price point a year ago. And the listed median price is identical, at just under $2.01 million. The listed median price for homes priced above $2.5 million, however, changed more dramatically: the 41 homes for sale at this price point or greater have a median offering price of $3.495 million, compared with the $3.250 million median offering price on the 43 homes that were for sale in San Francisco at the end of the first quarter in 2005.

SOLD Data

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Total Sold: $98,115,000

Sold median: $3.400 million

Units Sold: 21

Highest Price: $16,500,000

City: San Francisco

Period 1Q 2005

Total Sold: $122,020,850

Sold median: $3.225 million

Units Sold: 24

San Francisco County

Inventory

DH&E base rate $1.5 million +

Period 1Q 2006

Listed: 128

Listed Median: $2,099,500

Units Sold: 69

Period 1Q 2005

Listed: 130

Listed Median: $2,099,500

Units Sold: 80

For a complete listing of Alain Pinel Realtors offices, services and agents, please visit our website at apr.com or call 408-741-1111.

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