Northern California’s High-end and Luxury Housing Markets, Mixed Results

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RISMEDIA, Feb. 14, 2007-Fourth quarter sales of high-end and luxury-priced homes in seven Northern California counties served by Alain Pinel Realtors exhibited a mix of stabilized pricing overall, with luxury-classed homes selling for greater median prices in six of seven counties while median prices declined in most of the counties at the high-end of the housing market. Inventory, which is often a precursor of future activity, was all over the place in the fourth quarter and depending on price points, higher in some counties and lower in others, according to the Distinctive Homes & Estates fourth quarter report by Alain Pinel Realtors.

The information in this report is based on public records researched from the leading multiple listing services in San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Contra Costa and Alameda counties and compiled specifically for Alain Pinel Realtors by TrendGraphix Inc., a leading real estate information services provider based in Sacramento.

Overview $1.5- $2.499 High-end Market

For homes listed from $1.5 million to $2.499 million, San Mateo was the only county among the seven counties tracked by Alain Pinel Realtors to experience a decline in inventory during the fourth quarter, by dropping 11.54% from 78 homes listed at the end of 2005 to 69 homes listed at the end of 2006. In this price range, Santa Clara County' inventory increased the least at just 1.58% (from 190 to 193) during the same period. Meanwhile Contra Costa County inventory climbed a dramatic 73.33% in the fourth quarter 2006 compared with the same quarter of 2005, or 130 listings versus 75 a year earlier.

Prices slipped modestly during the period, based on sold median figures for homes from $1.5 to $2.499 million, in six of seven counties tracked by APR. San Francisco County was the exception with an 8.53 percent media price increase from $1.7 million during the fourth quarter 2005 compared with $1.845 million during the final quarter of 2006.

Alameda's median sales price fell only .32%, Monterey County's just 1.5% and Santa Clara County's declined 2.54%, while Contra Costa's fell 4.28%, San Mateo's was off 4.45% for homes sold between $1.5 million and $2.499 million, and Santa Cruz homes priced from $1.5 million to $2.499 dropped 4.85%.

The most dramatic change by category for homes sold between $1.5 million and $2.5 million was in unit count-far fewer homes sold in this price range during the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the fourth quarter of 2005 – except in Santa Clara County. The six counties to experience declining unit sales were San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz, Monterey, Alameda and Contra Costa, which fell on average 27.41%.

Unit sales declined the least in Contra Costa County – 15.38 percent during the period (66 sold in 4Q06 vs. 78 in 4Q05), while Monterey County's unit sales declined the most at 39.58 percent (29 in 4Q06 vs. 48 in 4Q05).

Unit sales increased a modest 6.08 percent Santa Clara County during the period, with 208 sales from $1.5 million to $2.499 million during the fourth quarter 2006, compared with 195 in the same period of 2005. Perhaps the surging stock market and low unemployment figures in the Silicon Valley's core county account for the exceptional sales performance.

Overview $2.5 and greater Luxury Market

For the category of "luxury" homes priced at $2.5 million and greater in the seven counties tracked by Alain Pinel Realtors, San Francisco exhibited the greatest fourth quarter improvement on a year-to-year basis while Contra Costa proved to be the weakest link in the quarter, as measured by the relationship between inventory and units sold.

Inventory of luxury-priced homes declined in San Francisco 35.71%, with just 18 homes on the market compared with 28 at the end of 2005, while more homes sold in the county for the period – 31 versus 27 in the fourth quarter 2005, for a gain of 14.8%. Contra Costa County, meanwhile, had more inventory of homes added to the market above $2.5 million – 60 at year-end 2006 compared with 41 at year-end 2005, or a 46.34% increase, as unit sales slipped from 10 during the fourth quarter 2005 to seven in the final quarter of 2006, or a 30% decline. The median price of homes sold in this category increased 8.16% in Contra Costa County, however, reaching $2.9 million in the most recent quarter versus $2.68 million a year earlier. In San Francisco, the median price was off slightly, or just 3.73%, declining to $3.095 million compared with $3.215 million in the fourth quarter 2005.

In Monterey, Santa Cruz, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Alameda counties, the data was mixed concerning movement in inventory and unit sales, with no notable trends.

In general, pricing held steady for homes sold beyond $2.5 million. As noted, San Francisco's median sales price declined in the quarter, but the other six counties combined experienced positive price appreciation, despite the mixed report on inventory and unit sales, by increasing on average 5.3% in the fourth quarter 2006 compared with the final quarter of 2005. Monterey County had the greatest spike in median home price with plus 10.86%, or $3.7 million versus $3.337 million in the fourth quarter 2005. Alameda County's median price of sold homes gained a modest 1.69%, with a median price in the recent quarter of $3 million compared with a median of $2.95 million in the fourth quarter 2005.

"The performance of luxury-classed housing sales continues to march to its own beat and seems unaffected by the correction in the general housing market," said Alain Pinel Realtors president and COO Larry Knapp. "It's not necessarily the same story in the high-end market, where inventory appears to be stabilizing after several months of steep increases that ultimately put the breaks on price appreciation. In other words, the markets are behaving normally, with one affected by general market conditions and the other not much, if at all," he said.

Distinctive Homes & Estates Market Index
Source: Alain Pinel Realtors and TrendGraphix

The data is a compilation of information provided to members of the multiple-listing services that serve Realtors in the region (SFMLS, REINFO and MAX-EBRD). For a county-by-county analysis of homes sold and listed for sale at the benchmark rates of $1.5 million and $2.5 million, please read the balance of the report.

Fourth Quarter 2006 Sales Performance DH&E marketplace
Seven Northern California Counties

Santa Clara County

At $2.5 million and greater in Santa Clara County, 52 homes were sold during the period compared with 43 in the fourth quarter 2005. Inventory was stable with homes priced from $1.5 million to $2.499 million, at 190 homes on the market at year-end 2006 versus 193 homes for sale a year earlier. The highest- priced home sold was $7 million, in Los Gatos.

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $144,641,500
Units Sold: 43
Highest Price: $7 million, in Los Gatos
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $173,480,603
Units Sold: 52

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 193
Listed Median: $1,888,000
Units Sold: 208
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 190
Listed Median: $1,949,950
Units Sold: 195

San Mateo County

High end and luxury homes sales at both levels in San Mateo increased during the fourth quarter compared with the final quarter of 2005, with 59 homes sold at $2.5 million or greater versus 54 a year earlier, and 121 homes sold from $1.5 million to $2.499 million, compared with 103 in the final quarter of 2005. Inventory of homes for sale increased slightly.

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $218,277,800
Units Sold: 54
Highest Price: An Atherton home, with price withheld
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $211,335,650
Units Sold: 59

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 69
Listed Median: $1,850,000
Units Sold: 103
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 78
Listed Median: $1,977,500
Units Sold: 121

Alameda County

Inventory climbed and sales fell at the $1.5 million to $2.499 million level in Alameda County during the fourth quarter last year, as 81 homes were listed for sale versus 60 a year earlier and only 52 homes sold in this price range compared with the same period a year ago, when 73 homes sold. Luxury-priced home sales was more consistent on a year-to-year basis, with 12 homes sold above $2.5 million – one less than the 13 homes sold at this price point in the final quarter 2005. The highest-priced home sold was $5.3 million, in Pleasanton.

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $38,574,000
Units Sold: 12
Highest Price: $5.3 million in Pleasanton
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $39,750,000
Units Sold: 13

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 81
Listed Median: $1,800,000
Units Sold: 52
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 60
Listed Median: $1,849,975
Units Sold: 73

Contra Costa County

Sales of high-end and luxury properties in Contra Costa County at both benchmark levels measured by Alain Pinel Realtors, or $1.5 to $2.499 and $2.5 and greater, fell in the fourth quarter by approximately 25% compared with the fourth quarter 2005. Taken together, 73 homes sold for $1.5 million or more in the recent quarter versus 88 in the same quarter a year ago. The highest-priced home sold was $3.65 million, in Lafayette.

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $20,875,000
Units Sold: 7
Highest Price: $3.65 million, in Lafayette
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $27,407,500
Units Sold: 10

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 130
Listed Median: $1,849,000
Units Sold: 66
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 75
Listed Median: $1,800,000
Units Sold: 78

San Francisco County

More than any other county tracked by Alain Pinel Realtors, high-end and luxury-class home sales and inventory statistics for San Francisco County seem to be the least volatile on a quarterly basis, and the fourth quarter 2006 behaved consistently with the fourth quarter of 2005. A year ago, 27 homes sold for $2.5 million or greater in the quarter while in the recent quarter, 31 homes sold for this amount or greater. A year ago, 16 homes were listed for sale at $1.5 million or greater; this year during the fourth quarter? The same: 16. The listed median price did drop slightly in the recent quarter, to a little under $1.8 million whereas the listed median at the end of the fourth quarter 2005 was close to $1.825 million.

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $125,053,400
Units Sold: 31
Highest Price: $14.25 million
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $129,482,500
Units Sold: 27

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 16
Listed Median: $1,797,500
Units Sold: 52
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 16
Listed Median: $1,825,000
Units Sold: 71

Santa Cruz County and Monterey County Summaries

Both Santa Cruz and Monterey counties showed signs of stability in the fourth quarter after a couple of tough quarters for both counties, during which the housing market correction seemed to impact these coastal counties more so than their high end and luxury housing-market counterparts in San Francisco Bay Area counties.

At $2.5 million or greater, four Santa Cruz homes sold in the quarter, or the same number as the fourth quarter 2005, while 23 homes sold at this price point or greater in Monterey during the period, an increase from the 19 that sold in the fourth quarter 2005. Sales were off in the $1.5 to $2.499 million range for both counties, however; 14 sold in this price range in Santa Cruz County during the recent quarter, compared with 23 during the same period a year earlier. In Monterey County, 29 homes sold from $1.5 to $2.499 million in the fourth quarter 2006, compared with 48 sold in this range in the fourth quarter 2005.

The median sale price increased at $2.5 million or greater in each county; it was plus 10.86% in Monterey ($3.7 million 4Q06 vs. $3.337 million 4Q05) and positive 4.13 percent in Santa Cruz ($3.150 million 4Q06 vs. $3.025 million 4Q05).

In contrast, the median sale price dropped in both counties at the benchmark level of $1.5 million to $2.499 million. For Monterey, the median sale price fell to $1.8 million versus $1.827 million a year earlier, or a 1.5% decline, while median price dropped to $1.717 million in Santa Cruz County in the recent quarter, compared with $1.805 million at the end of the fourth quarter in 2005 – a 4.85% decline.

The highest-priced home sold in Santa Cruz County was $4.6 million, in Seascape. The highest-priced home sold in Monterey County was in Pebble Beach, for 8.95 million.

Santa Cruz County

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $12,790,000
Units Sold: 4
Highest Price: $4.6 million Seascape
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $11,325,000
Units Sold: 4

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 52
Listed Median: $1,860,000
Units Sold: 14
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 49
Listed Median: $1,750,000
Units Sold: 23

Monterey County

DH&E base rate $2.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Total Sold: $97,255,000
Units Sold: 23
Highest Price: $8.95 million Pebble Beach
Period 4Q 2005
Total Sold: $86,520,150
Units Sold: 19

INVENTORY/Unit Sales
DH&E base rate $1.5 million +
Period 4Q 2006
Listed: 161
Listed Median: $1,895,000
Units Sold: 29
Period 4Q 2005
Listed: 148
Listed Median: $1,899,000
Units Sold: 48

For more information, visit http://www.apr.com.

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Saturday, November 21, 2009