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CoreLogic: Prices on Track for 7.1 Percent Increase

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October prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012, the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis, according to the latest data from CoreLogic.

On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012. All but five states are experiencing year-over-year price gains.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 5.8 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012, the eighth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2011 and fall by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from October 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter. Excluding distressed sales, November 2012 house prices are poised to rise 7.4 percent year-over-year from November 2011 and by 0.5 percent month-over-month from October 2012. The CoreLogic Pending HPI is a proprietary and exclusive metric that provides the most current indication of trends in home prices. It is based on Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data that measure price changes for the most recent month.

“The housing recovery that started earlier in 2012 continues to gain momentum,” says Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The recovery is geographically broad-based with almost all markets experiencing some appreciation. Sand and energy states continue to experience the most robust appreciation and some judicial foreclosure states are even recording increasing prices.”

“We are seeing an ongoing strengthening of the residential housing market,” says Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Reduced inventories and improving buyer demand are contributing to stability and growth in home prices, which is essential to the long term health of the housing market and the broader economy.”

Highlights as of October 2012:

  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+21.3 percent), Hawaii (+13.2 percent), Idaho (+12.4 percent), Nevada (+12.4 percent) and North Dakota (+10.4 percent).
  • Including distressed sales, the five states with the greatest home price depreciation were: Illinois (-2.7 percent), Delaware (-2.7 percent), Rhode Island (-0.6 percent), New Jersey (-0.6 percent) and Alabama (-0.3 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, the five states with the highest home price appreciation were: Arizona (+16.6 percent), Hawaii (+12.2 percent), Nevada (+10.8 percent), Idaho (+9.7 percent) and California (+9.7 percent).
  • Excluding distressed sales, this month only three states posted home price depreciation: Delaware (-2.1 percent), Alabama (-1.5 percent) and New Jersey (-0.2 percent).
  • Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to October 2012) was -26.9 percent. Excluding distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the HPI for the same period was -20.6 percent.
  • The five states with the largest peak-to-current declines, including distressed transactions, were Nevada (-53.5 percent), Florida (-44.5 percent), Arizona (-40.2 percent), California (-36.6 percent) and Michigan (-35.3 percent).
  • Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 17 are showing year-over-year declines in October, four fewer than in September.

For more information, visit www.realestateeconomywatch.com.

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