After these shifting fundamental drivers shake out, we expect the recovery to continue at a healthier and more sustainable pace. Certainly Las Vegas is the strongest example of a market that is really hot, with yearly growth of 31.2 percent. While these gains are a nice pick-up off the price floor, they will not last over the long term. We expect most of the major markets across the country to follow the path of sharp upward corrections in the short term, followed by moderating gains as markets fall back in line with their long run levels. Phoenix, for example, is now seeing quarterly growth that supports a yearly growth rate more in line with 10.0 percent, as opposed to the current yearly gains of 23.3 percent . The exact timing of this moderation will vary market by market. In Detroit, for example, given the current uncertainty in the municipal finances, it will likely be some time before REO saturation subsides to a level more in line with national rates and prices bounce back in a meaningful way. While Detroit has struggled with high levels of distressed activity since the housing market collapse, the recent financial developments for the metro will likely serve as another hurdle. Big picture, though, the housing market overall is in a great position and likely to continue to improve. All the more reason we must continue to observe performance market by market. What holds true for Las Vegas doesn’t hold true for Detroit, let alone San Jose.”
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