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Housing Share of the Economy at 15.3 Percent

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housing_share_of_economyHousing is an important source of economic growth. As of the final quarter of 2013, housing’s share of gross domestic product (GDP) was 15.3 percent, with home building yielding 3.1 percentage points of that total.

Housing-related activities contribute to GDP in two basic ways.

The first is through residential fixed investment (RFI). RFI is effectively the measure of the home building and remodeling contribution to GDP. It includes construction of new single-family and multifamily structures, residential remodeling, production of manufactured homes and brokers’ fees. For the fourth quarter, RFI was 3.1 percent of the economy.

While the final quarter of 2013 was effectively tied with the second quarter of the year for the strongest level of RFI after the Great Recession ($487 billion annualized pace), the drop from the noticeably strong third quarter pace ($500 billion annualized) resulted in home building yielding a negative impact on the fourth quarter headline GDP result of 3.2 percent growth. This was the first negative contribution since the first quarter of 2011. Nonetheless, the trend in recent quarters indicates that RFI is growing faster than the economy as a whole. For example, over the last two years, GDP has grown about 4.7 percent, while RFI is up 22.8 percent.

The second impact of housing on GDP is the measure of housing services, which includes gross rents (including utilities) paid by renters, and owners’ imputed rent (an estimate of how much it would cost to rent owner-occupied units) and utility payments. The inclusion of owners’ imputed rent is necessary from a national income accounting approach because without this measure increases in homeownership would result in declines for GDP. For the fourth quarter, housing services was 12.3 percent of the economy.

Historically, RFI has averaged roughly 5 percent of GDP while housing services have averaged between 12 percent and 13 percent, for a combined 17 percent to 18 percent of GDP. These shares tend to vary over the business cycle.

View this original post on the NAHB blog, Eye on Housing.

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