Real Estate Delinquencies and Foreclosures Increase in Latest Survey

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RISMEDIA, March 10, 2008-The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties stood at 5.82% of all loans outstanding in the fourth quarter of 2007 on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, up 23 basis points from the third quarter of 2007, and up 87 basis points from one year ago, according to MBA’s National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 2.04% of all loans outstanding at the end of the fourth quarter, an increase of 35 basis points from the third quarter of 2007 and 85 basis points from one year ago.

The rate of loans entering the foreclosure process was 0.83% on a seasonally adjusted basis, five basis points higher than the previous quarter and up 29 basis points from one year ago.

The total delinquency rate is the highest in the MBA survey since 1985. The rate of foreclosure starts and the percent of loans in the process of foreclosure are at the highest levels ever.

The increase in foreclosure starts was due to increases for both prime and subprime loans. From the previous quarter, prime fixed rate loan foreclosure starts remained unchanged at 0.22%, but prime ARM foreclosure starts increased four basis points to 1.06%. Subprime fixed foreclosure starts increased 14 basis points to 1.52% and subprime ARM foreclosure starts increased 57 basis points to 5.29%. FHA foreclosure starts decreased 4 basis points to 0.91% and VA foreclosure starts remained unchanged at 0.39.

Since the fourth quarter of 2006, the foreclosure start rate for prime ARMs increased from 0.41% to 1.06% and the rate for subprime ARMs increased from 2.70% to 5.29%. The foreclosure start rate for prime fixed loans increased from 0.16% to 0.22% and the rate for subprime fixed loans increased from 1.09% to 1.52%.

As can be seen in the chart below, while subprime ARMs represent 7% of the loans outstanding, they represent 42% of the foreclosures started during the fourth quarter. Prime ARMs represent 15% of the loans outstanding, but 20% of the foreclosures started.

California and Florida continue to represent a disproportionate share of the foreclosure starts in the country. Those two states represent 21% of all loans outstanding, but accounted for 30% of foreclosure starts in the US. More importantly, they accounted for 39% of all prime ARMs outstanding, but 47% of prime ARM foreclosure starts. Similarly, they represented 29% of all subprime ARMs, but 36% of subprime ARM foreclosure starts. The rate of foreclosure starts in Florida more than tripled between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007, while the rate in California more than doubled.

While Michigan, Ohio and Indiana continue to have the highest percentages of loans in foreclosure, and are among the states with the highest rates of new foreclosures, those states experienced comparatively little increase over the last year or last quarter in their rates of new foreclosures started.

“Declining home prices are clearly the driving factor behind foreclosures, but the reasons and magnitude of the declines differ from state to state,” said Doug Duncan, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Business Development. “In states like Ohio and Michigan, declines in the demand for homes due to job losses and out-migration have left those looking to sell the homes with fewer potential buyers, particularly with the much tighter credit restrictions borrowers now face. In states like California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, overbuilding of new homes created a surplus that will take some time to work through.

“Of significance, however, is that the rate reset issue on adjustable rate mortgages is becoming less of an issue. The 6-month LIBOR rate, the index rate used for many subprime ARMs, has come down around 2.5 percentage points since last September, greatly reducing the payment shock on many ARM resets.”

Change from last quarter (third quarter of 2007)

The SA delinquency rate increased 12 basis points for prime loans (from 3.12% to 3.24%), 100 basis points for subprime loans (from 16.31% to 17.31%), 13 basis points for FHA loans (from 12.92% to 13.05%), but decreased nine basis points for VA loans (from 6.58% to 6.49%).

The foreclosure inventory rate increased 17 basis points for prime loans (from 0.79% to 0.96%), and increased 176 basis points for subprime loans (from 6.89% to 8.65%). FHA loans saw a 12 basis point increase in foreclosure inventory rate (from 2.22% to 2.34%), while the foreclosure inventory rate for VA loans increased nine basis points (from 1.03% to 1.12%).

The SA foreclosure starts rate increased four basis points for prime loans (from 0.37% to 0.41%), 32 basis points for subprime loans (from 3.12% to 3.44%). The foreclosure starts rate decreased four basis points for FHA loans (from 0.95% to 0.91%) and was unchanged for VA loans (0.39%).

The seriously delinquent rate, the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) percentage of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent, or in the process of foreclosure, was up from both last quarter and from last year. This measure is designed to account for inter-company differences on when a loan enters the foreclosure process.

During the fourth quarter, the seriously delinquent rate increased for all loan types. The rate increased 36 basis points for prime loans (from 1.31% to 1.67%), 306 basis points for subprime loans (from 11.38 to 14.44%), 46 basis points for FHA loans (from 5.54% to 6%) and 27 basis points for VA loans (from 2.56 to 2.83%).

Change from last year (fourth quarter of 2006)

On a year-over-year basis, the SA delinquency rate increased for prime and subprime loans, and decreased for FHA and VA loans. The delinquency rate increased 67 basis points for prime loans, increased 398 basis points for subprime loans, decreased 41 basis points for FHA loans, and decreased 33 basis points for VA loans.

Compared with the fourth quarter of 2006, the foreclosure inventory rate increased 46 basis points for prime loans and 412 basis points for subprime loans. The foreclosure inventory rate also increased 15 basis points for FHA loans and 11 basis points for VA loans.

The SA foreclosure starts rate increased 29 basis points overall, 17 basis points for prime loans, 144 basis points for subprime loans, and five basis points for VA loans. For FHA loans, the foreclosure starts rate decreased two basis points from the fourth quarter of 2006.

The seriously delinquent rate was 81 basis points higher for prime loans and 666 basis points higher for subprime loans. The rate also increased 22 basis points for FHA loans and 18 basis points for VA loans.

For more information, visit www.mortgagebankers.org.

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