RISMEDIA, October 5, 2009—The just-released Third Quarter 2009 Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview reveals that while over the past two decades, the number of Manhattan co-op and condo sales has tended to peak in the second quarter, this year the peak level of activity was pushed forward three months to the third quarter. This is as a result of the frozen market conditions last fall beginning with the 9/15/08 market tipping point (Lehman bankruptcy).
Consequently, the “spring” market effectively occurred this summer reflecting a release of pent-up demand, improved consumer confidence buoyed by a rising stock market, record low mortgage rates, increased affordability and the first time buyers tax credit.
“The surge in activity caused price levels to move sideways and inventory to trend lower,” said Jonathan Miller, President/CEO of Miller Samuel, the firm that prepared the report. “Yet due to elevated unemployment levels, shadow inventory and tight credit, the Manhattan housing market can best be characterized as “turning the corner” but has not yet found a “bottom.”
“We’ve had a busier summer than I’ve seen in eight or nine years,” said Dottie Herman, president and CEO of PDE. “People still overwhelmingly believe that buying a home is a good financial decision. With increased consumer confidence, good prices, low mortgage rates and fear of future inflation, this is a terrific time to buy.”
Highlights from the 3rd Quarter Prudential Douglas Elliman Manhattan Market Overview include:
Key Trend Metrics
— Average sales price was $1,323,462, down 10.6% from $1,480,363 in the
prior year quarter but up 0.8% from $1,312,920 in the prior quarter.
— Price per square foot was $996, down 16.5% from $1,193 in the prior
year quarter and down 5.7% from $1,056 in the prior quarter.
— Median sales price was $850,000, down 8.4% from $928,263 in the prior
year quarter but up 1.7% from $835,700 in the prior quarter.
— Number of sales declined 16% to 2,230 sales from 2,654 sales from the
prior year quarter but increased 45.6% from 1,532 units in the prior
— Listing inventory declined 4.6% to 8,389 units from 8,794 units at
this time last year and fell 10.5% from 9,378 units in the prior
— Days on market was 167 days, up from 134 days this time last year.
— Listing discount was 7.6%, up from 2.6% in the same period last year.
— Absorption rate was 11.3 months, above the 10-year 10-month average
and above the 5.6 month rate during the same period 2 years ago.
— Median sales price of a co-op this quarter was $630,000, down 8.4%
from $688,000 in the prior year quarter.
— Number of sales fell by 26.2% to 995 units, from 1,348 units in the
same period last year but jumped 36.7% from 728 sales in the prior
— Listing inventory levels for co-ops declined 9% to 3,840 units from
4,219 units in the prior year quarter.
— Co-ops accounted for 44.6% of all apartment sales and 45.8% of all
listings this quarter.
— Absorption rate was 11.6 months.
— Median sales price of a condo this quarter was $1,105,124, down 16.8%
from the prior year quarter result of $1,220,000.
— Number of sales fell by 5.4% to 1,235 units, from 1,306 units in the
same period last year.
— Listing inventory levels for condos slipped 0.6% to 4,549 units from
4,575 units in the prior year quarter.
— Condos accounted for 55.4% of all apartment sales and 54.2% of all
listings this quarter.
— Absorption rate was 11.1 months.
Luxury Market (upper 10% of all co-op and condo sales)
— Median sales price was $3,905,000, down 2.9% from $4,022,087 in the
prior year quarter, but up 6.7% from $3,660,608 in the prior quarter.
— The lower limit of the top ten percent of all sales this quarter was
— Listing inventory slipped 0.6% to 1,616 units from the same period
— Days on market was 181 days, compared to 119 days in the prior year
— Listing discount was 4.1%, up from 2.9% this time last year.
— Absorption rate was 21.7 months.
Loft Market (co-op and condo sales)
— Median sales price was $1,500,000, down 21.9% from the prior year
quarter result of $1,920,000.
— Number of sales fell by 44.9% to 124 units, from 225 units in the same
period last year.
— Listing inventory declined 25% to 623 units from 831 units in the
prior year quarter.
— Lofts accounted for 5.6% of all apartment sales this quarter, down
from 8.5% during the same period last year.
— Absorption rate was 15.1 months.
The report’s author, Jonathan J. Miller, president/CEO of Miller Samuel. Miller provides input for the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, and serves on the NYC Mayor’s Economic Advisory Panel and the NYC Council Finance Committee Economic Advisory Board. On Matrix [matrix.millersamuel.com], he blogs about the real estate economy.
Dottie Herman is President & CEO of Prudential Douglas Elliman, the company that distributes the report. Prudential Douglas Elliman is New York City and Long Island’s preeminent residential broker, with nearly 70 offices, over 3,300 real estate agents and a network of national and international affiliates. Herman is frequently quoted in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Crain’s, and The New York Post.
About the Manhattan Market Overview
The Manhattan Market Overview is New York’s first quarterly residential market report, and is developed from the largest and most sophisticated database of transactions in New York. The report was the first to track co-ops by price per square foot, to analyze square footage of all sales, to analyze the market by median sales price, to break out the market by bedrooms (Studio, 1, 2, 3, 4+), to analyze market-wide apartment inventory, to analyze days on market and absorption, to drop price per room as an obsolete market indicator, to break out sales by specific neighborhoods and to analyze the uptown co-op and condo market.
About Miller Samuel
Miller Samuel is an appraisal and consulting services firm covering the New York City metropolitan area. Miller Samuel provided property valuations of more than $5,000,000,000 in the past year. The company’s clients include domestic and international financial institutions, law firms, consulting firms, developers, employee relocation companies, co-op and condo boards, managing agents, individuals and government agencies. The firm developed what is now the largest database of Manhattan co-op and condo sales covering the sales market back to the late 1970s. For more information visit www.millersamuel.com.
For more information, visit www.prudentialelliman.com.