RISMEDIA, January 18, 2010—U.S. home values in November 2009 showed continued stabilization when compared to previous months, with the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) down slightly (-0.1%) from October, and down 5% from levels a year ago. The ZHVI was $190,000 at the end in November, down 21% from its peak value of $239,500 in June 2006.
But, as always, conditions vary by market. This table shows trends in twenty-five selected metro markets. Of these markets, twelve had negative monthly changes in home values in November versus only nine with negative monthly changes in October, an indication that some of the markets that have exhibited positive appreciation in recent months are seeing renewed depreciation, as we expected.
The three cities with flat or positive performance in October that turned slightly negative again in November were San Diego (down 0.1% in November after six consecutive months of gains), Seattle (down 0.1% after four consecutive months of gains) and Washington D.C. (down 0.1%). Other metros with several months of gains turned in much weaker appreciation in November and are very likely to show renewed depreciation in the coming months. These include Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, Denver and Los Angeles.
Nationally, the percentage of homes foreclosed in the month (out of all homes) regained its former peak of 0.1% in November indicating that foreclosure activity is picking up again. Foreclosure re-sales as a percentage of all transactions remained steady at 20% but would have likely risen higher had it not been for robust sales activity fueled by the anticipated expiration of the first-time home buyer tax credit (which was expanded and extended to the end of April).
This figure shows the month-over-month and year-over-year changes in home values for the past nine years. The annualized appreciation rate continues to moderate but we think its unlikely monthly appreciation is going to break into positive territory near-term. Instead, we expect monthly appreciation to get more negative in the coming months as foreclosures continue, inventory levels stay high, and mortgage rates increase.
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