In November, 2015, home prices continued their rise across the country, according to the recently released S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
“Home prices rose in November, pushed by stubbornly-low home inventory as sellers still wait on the sidelines,” says Quicken Loans vice president Bill Banfield. “While owners enjoy seeing the value of their investment grow, some markets are running into an affordability problem – especially with areas in the west seeing double-digit yearly price growth.”
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.3 percent annual increase in November 2015 versus a 5.1 percent increase in October 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.3 percent in the year to November compared to 5.0 percent previously. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.8 percent versus 5.5 percent reported in October.
Portland, San Francisco and Denver continue to report the highest year over year gains among the 20 cities with another month of double digit annual price increases. Portland led the way with an 11.1 percent year-over-year price increase, followed by San Francisco with 11.0 percent and Denver with a 10.9 percent increase. Fourteen cities reported greater price increases in the year ending November 2015 versus the year ending October 2015. Phoenix had the longest streak of year-over-year increases, reporting a gain of 5.9 percent inNovember 2015, and the twelfth consecutive increase in annual price gains. Detroit posted a 6.3 percent year-over-year price, up from 5.1%, the largest annual increase this month.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1 percent month-over-month in November. The 10- City Composite was unchanged and the 20-City Composite reported gains of 0.1 percent month-over-month in November. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index, along with the 10-City and 20-City Composites, all increased 0.9 percent month-over-month in November. Fourteen of 20 cities reported increases in November before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities increased for the month.
“Home prices extended their gains, supported by continued low mortgage rates, tight supplies and an improving labor market,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “Sales of existing homes were up 6.5 percent in 2015 vs. 2014, and the number of homes on the market averaged about a 4.8 months’ supply during the year; both numbers suggest a seller’s market. The consumer portion of the economy is doing well; like housing, automobile sales were quite strong last year. Other parts of the economy are not faring as well. Businesses in the oil and energy sectors are suffering from the 75 percent drop in oil prices in the last 18 months. Moreover, the strong U.S. dollar is slowing exports. Housing is not large enough to offset all of these weak spots.
“Home prices continue to recover from the collapse that began before the recession of 2007-2009 and continued until 2012. Three cities – Dallas, Denver and Portland OR – have reached new all-time highs; San Francisco is even with its earlier peak and Charlotte NC is less than one percent below its previous peak. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index is about 4.8 percent below the peak it set in July 2006, and 29.2 percent above the bottom it touched in January 2012. By comparison, the S&P 500 as of Friday, January 22nd is up 46 percent from January 2012 – better than the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price series and about the same as Los Angeles.”
For more information, visit www.homeprice.spdji.com.