Home Prices: Is Seattle Setting a Trend?

Home prices remain on the rise, but in declining increments—and in one market, annual gains recently reversed trend, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic/Case-Shiller Indices.

In May, home prices rose 3.4 percent year-over-year, according to Case-Shiller’s National Index, accounting for the nine Census-designated regions. In April, the Index posted 3.5 percent. In the country’s 20 major markets, home prices rose 2.4 percent year-over-year, and in the 10 major markets, rose 2.2 percent.

According to Philip Murphy, S&P’s global head of Index Governance and managing director, appreciation continues to rein in, but with local nuances. For instance, in Las Vegas and Phoenix, the pace of prices remains strong, but in Seattle, prices slid, in “the first negative year-over-year change recorded in a major city in a number of years,” Murphy says.

“Nationally, year-over-year home price gains were lower in May than in April, but not dramatically so, and a broad-based moderation continued,” Murphy says, adding “though home price gains seem generally sustainable for the time being, there are significant variations between year-over-year rates of change in individual cities.”

As for movement in Seattle, “whether negative year-over-year rates of change spread to other cities remains to be seen,” he says.

“The U.S. housing market cooldown continued in May, signaling the longest period of price growth anemia since the Great Recession,” says Ralph McLaughlin, deputy chief economist and executive of Research and Insights at CoreLogic. “However, coupled with the recent drop in mortgage rates and incomes rising faster than inflation, the transition to a more balanced market should allow the industry to enter a period of sustainability into the foreseeable future.”

The complete data for the 20 markets measured by S&P:

Atlanta, Ga.
MoM: 0.7%
YoY: 4.7%

Boston, Mass.
MoM: 0.5%
YoY: 3.6%

Charlotte, N.C.
MoM: 1%
YoY: 4.5%

Chicago, Ill.
MoM: 0.8%
YoY: 1.6%

Cleveland, Ohio
MoM: 1.4%
YoY: 3.6%

Dallas, Texas
MoM: 0.5%
YoY: 2.6%

Denver, Colo.
MoM: 0.6%
YoY: 3.6%

Detroit, Mich.
MoM: 1.2%
YoY: 4%

Las Vegas, Nev.
MoM: 0.6%
YoY: 6.4%

Los Angeles, Calif.
MoM: 0.8%
YoY: 1.9%

Miami, Fla.
MoM: 0.2%
YoY: 3.3%