Software development company TKI has unveiled its quarterly nSkope Predictive Analytics Report, which identifies more than 7.3 million homes in 364 studied Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) that are most likely to come on the market through June 2023.
nSkope uses proprietary algorithms enhanced by artificial intelligence to analyze over 300 data points and identify patterns and correlations. For each MSA, the analytics takes into account census population to determine the most predictive markets by size, the company stated.
Key findings:
- Communities with the top projected listings by June 2023, based on population size:
- Population of less than 100,000: Rome, Georgia, 4,323 projected listings.
- Population of 100,000 to 250,000: Gainesville, Georgia, 14,911 projected listings.
- Population of 250,000 to 500,000: Port St. Lucie, Florida, 23,800 projected listings.
- Population of 500,000 to 750,000: Durham-Chapel Hill, North Carolina leads 44,850 listings.
- Population of 750,000 to 1 Million: North Port, Sarasota and Bradenton Florida, 40,141 projected listings.
- Population of 1 to 2 Million: Nashville, Davidson, Murfreesboro and Franklin Tennessee, 82,050 projected listings.
- Population of 2 to 4 Million: Phoenix, Mesa and Chandler, Arizona, 136,394 projected listings.
- Population of over 4 Million: New York City, New York/Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey, 280,999 projected listings.
- TKI also reviewed nSkope data to determine which MSAs had the highest success rate based on reviewing June 2021 predictions.
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- Overall, nSkope examined the nation’s approximately 128 million homes and predicted about seven million would come on the market between June 2021 – June 2022. Its average national success rate was 8.2%.
- Jackson, Michigan had 1,021 of the 5,879 predicted addresses come on the market over between June 2021-June 2022, a nation-leading 17.37% conversion rate.
- Jacksonville, North Carolina and New Orleans and Metairie, Louisiana, and Kalamazoo and Portage, Michigan were also above 15% success rates.
- Families with school-aged children will likely generate 22.6% of listings through June 2023. This was up from a 21.5% predicted for a 12-month span beginning in March 2022.
- Mature households (grown children and adults not yet at retirement age) are also expected to increase their market share, with projections up from 10.3% of listings to 10.8%.
- Retirees Saw a slight increase in percentages as well, from 6.9% to 7.8%.
- Listings offered by families with a grown child living at home and single households, however, saw their June 2023 listing projections decline from the March 2022 report.
- Families: 16.7% to 14.6%
- Singles: 10% to 9.6%
The takeaway:
“The application of predictive analytics has come a long way and should begin to play an even greater role in the marketing efforts of real estate brokerages and large teams,” said Tom Gamble, co-founder and CEO of TKI. “The cost of targeted marketing continuously increases and much of that effort is wasted reaching those who are not candidates to list their home. Our work helps shrink the target pool and showcases which properties may come on the market and why these addresses and potential clients should be targeted.”
“In an age where a closing rate of two percent of all leads would be unheard of, nSkope becomes an incredibly valuable tool,” Gamble continued. “For example, in Jackson, had a brokerage or team targeted only those homes we predicted would sell and secured them as clients, they would have seen a 17% conversion rate. It is also important for real estate professionals to continuously recognize that leads and our type of data are just a start. A lot of work must be done to turn potential opportunities into actual clients.”
“We just don’t think it is enough for real estate marketers to know which homes may come on the market. Instead, we feel it’s critical that we use ‘big data’ to help us best segment them so imagery and messaging can immediately match that home. These are not leads. They are prospective clients. And, in many instances, they are a long way from making the listing decision, which allows brokerages and teams to be in front of them as early as possible to develop a relationship.”
To learn more, visit tkinteractive.com.
