Current Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Secretary Scott Turner previously worked in housing during the first Trump administration—specifically overseeing so-called “opportunity zones.”
Passed in the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, opportunity zones are designated mostly low-income areas that offer tax breaks for developers/investors, so as to spur revitalization within the zone. New opportunity zones are nominated by the governor of the state where they are located. There are currently 8,764 zones nationwide—to assess their impact on local home prices, ATTOM Data sampled 3,783 of them that had at least five home sales in Q4 2024.
As a whole, the report found that prices in opportunity zones have closely mirrored broader nationwide price shifts for the past three years. Based on their status as lower-income and underdeveloped areas, the report found these areas “are showing economic strength, or limited weakness, compared to other markets around the country.”
In Q4 2024, median single-family home and condo prices increased quarter-over-quarter in 49% of surveyed zones. Annually, prices increased in 61% of these zones.
“Micro-markets inside opportunity zones continue to reap remarkably consistent benefits from the home-price boom that is still reaching far and wide across the country. Again and again, we are seeing notable levels of economic potential in these areas that have long been in need of revival,” said ATTOM CEO Rob Barber. “This keeps happening as rising values and tight supplies of homes for sale push many buyers on limited budgets into areas they may not have considered a few years ago.”
Thirty percent of the surveyed opportunity zones had median home prices below $150,000 in Q4 2024, down from 35% in 2023 and almost 60% in 2019. During the quarter, 80% of zones also saw median home prices below the national median of $360,000—this is consistent with results from the past three years, the report stated.
Price volatility was another noted feature of many surveyed opportunity zones—from Q3 to Q4 2024, median values dropped or increased by at least 5% in nearly three-quarters of the zones. The report attributed this to “small numbers of sales in many zones.”
The data further suggests that not all opportunities are equal. In the four major U.S. census regions, price increases in opportunity zones remain uneven. As of Q4 2024, 59% of opportunity zones located in the Midwest remain “low-priced” (median home value below $175,000).
The same is true of 42% of zones in the South, 41% of zones in the Northeast and only 5% of zones in the West. Compared to Q4 2023, these prices are higher, but the unequal distribution of gains is largely consistent: in 2023, 66% of Midwest opportunity zones had median prices below $175,000, followed by the Northeast (46%), South (45%) and West (6%).
Of states which had more than 25 opportunity zones with sufficient transaction data, the ones that saw annual price increases in the largest proportion of opportunity zones in Q4 2024 were:
- Indiana (75% of zones saw median price increases)
- Missouri (74%)
- Wisconsin (73%)
- Kentucky (72%)
- New Jersey (71%)
The states with sufficient data where the least number of zones saw annual median price increases this past quarter were:
- Texas (50%)
- Florida (50%)
- Arizona (46%)
- Alabama (44%)
- Louisiana (44%)
Aside from regional discrepancies, price trends within zones are “far from consistent,” Barber said. Generally, areas with higher home values are more likely to see further increases, whereas prices remain lower in areas with lower value.
The report cites, for instance, how only 47% of surveyed opportunity zones with median prices of $125,000 saw annual price increases in Q4 2024. Median household incomes in 86% of surveyed opportunity zones were also lower than median income of the county in which the zone is located.
These trends largely fall in line with chief criticisms of opportunity zones—that they do not sufficiently help the low-income residents of the zones.
Nonpartisan think tank the Tax Foundation found in 2023 that “the big winners (of opportunity zones) are investors and developers, not poor residents.” Tax Foundation author Scott Hodge wrote that, because the tax relief of opportunity zones is targeted at capital gains, that incentivizes investors to target areas with a high floor that will continue to see the greatest increase in value. Hence, the highest-value homes in opportunity zones become even more higher-valued.
Barber described the struggles of lowest-income areas to “keep up” as “a warning sign,” but said the positive impact outweighs any drawbacks thus far.
“The big takeaway from the latest data is that significant money is flowing into these locations, which can provide a stepping stone for the investment that the opportunity zone legislation is intended to spur,” said Barber.
At Turner’s Senate confirmation hearing this past January, he and Senator Tim Scott (R-SC), one of the key figures in the original passage of opportunity zones, discussed the program. Both men indicated that they intended to maintain their support for opportunity zones, though with monitoring to ensure goals are met. Turner’s early actions at HUD have included downsizing—it remains to be seen how opportunity zones will be affected.
For the full ATTOM report, click here.
