Above: Gary Keller (in black), Jay Papasan and Jason Abrams on stage for Keller Williams’ Family Reunion event in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Feb. 18 (photo courtesy of Keller Williams)
Housing industry leaders at Keller Williams project U.S. home sales will remain at historically low levels this year, though prices will stabilize despite affordability challenges.
Speaking at the Keller Williams Family Reunion in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Gary Keller—co-founder and executive chairman of the global brokerage—noted that current transaction volumes are at their lowest point in nearly 30 years, with projected sales of around 4.2 million units in 2025.
“When you get into a trough like this, it typically takes three to four years to get out of it,” Keller said. “If you’re hoping we were going to come on stage and go, ‘It’s over, the easy deals are back’—that’s not true. And my guess is we have at least two more years, this year and next year (of the same conditions).”
Despite lower transaction volumes, total sales dollar volume remains strong. The industry logged $2.2 trillion in sales in 2024, marking the third-best year on record, Keller said.
However, home prices are currently 9.9% above the long-term trend line, though experts say this isn’t as concerning as some may think.
As Keller explained: “If you had no appreciation for two and a half years, you’d be at the trend line. That rarely ever happens.”
The percentage of homes seeing price reductions is increasing, rising from 24% in January 2024 to 31% in January 2025. This suggests more negotiating room for buyers as the market adjusts.
For buyers concerned about high interest rates and prices, Jay Papasan, vice president of content strategy with Keller Williams, offered this perspective: “Don’t wait for the right time to buy real estate. Buy real estate and give it time.” He emphasized that, historically, real estate appreciation consistently rewards long-term owners.
Jason Abrams, head of industry and learning with the brokerage, added, “You might be buying at the top of the moment, but you’re never buying at the top of the market,” pointing to decades of price-appreciation data.
It’s up to real estate professionals, Keller said, to put the data into perspective for potential buyers and reassure them in the process.
“One of the reasons that we exist as professionals is to bring perspective to people and help them understand (the market data) and put it all in place,” Keller said, adding that if agents were to take market data and localize it in short videos and other touchpoints, they’ll sell more real estate.
First-time homebuyers continue to face challenges entering the market. The average age of first-time buyers has risen to 38, up from 29 in 1982. They now represent a smaller portion of total buyers than the historical norm of 40%.
The data shows real estate agents remain central to transactions, with 88% of buyers using an agent to purchase their home. Notably, 75% of buyers choose to work with the first agent they contact—an all-time high.
2025 housing market predictions
Looking ahead at housing, Keller emphasized that the real estate industry, in contrast, isn’t as susceptible to major shifts.
“The business isn’t changing the way the world would try to tell you that it is, and technology isn’t changing it either,” Keller said regarding buyer behavior and agent relationships.
Housing inventory is showing signs of gradual improvement, though new construction still lags historical averages. Builders face ongoing challenges including regulatory burdens, high land costs, volatile material prices, labor shortages and profitability constraints.
KW’s experts suggest the market may take time to normalize, but fundamentals remain solid. As Keller noted, “Every generation needs its economic event that resets prices on assets that allows them to get in on a lower floor, and then ride the next wave.”
Public sentiment toward real estate investment remains positive, with 80% of consumers viewing real estate as a good financial investment. Only 5% considered it a poor investment, while 15% were uncertain.
The data KW leaders presented suggests that 2025 will likely see continued tight inventory and gradually moderating prices. Meanwhile, transaction volumes will remain below historical averages as the market works through persistent affordability headwinds.
However, long-term, price-appreciation trends and strong buyer interest point to more opportunities for both consumers and real estate professionals who take a patient, strategic approach.
“It’s a slow climb, but we need it to climb. And it is climbing,” Keller said.
Rivals and headlines
Through his talk, Keller riffed on a wide-ranging set of topics, including chaotic federal government cuts, tariffs, the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) and mass deportations, emphasizing that he was “apolitical” and “only report(s) the facts.”
He also sharply called out fellow real estate CEO Robert Reffkin of Compass, seemingly referring to a recent op-ed in which Reffkin heavily referenced decades-old comments by Keller and included video footage of Keller Williams’ 2015 Family Reunion event.
“Robert Reffkin has done a good job of stealing my videos and trying to use those,” Keller said. “Okay, Robert. Have your own thoughts…I’m not going to call him and say it, but I can say it here.”
“From all I understand, he’s a good guy,” Keller concluded.
Keller’s previous comments that Reffkin cited in the op-ed were specifically and harshly critical of NAR, as Keller told an audience in 2015 that “NAR sold us out a long time ago,” referring to the Realtor.com® brand and sharing MLS data with the portals.
At this year’s Family Reunion, Keller said he didn’t believe lowering corporate taxes would increase wages, wondered if increased unemployment created by federal layoffs and firings could be “really good for real estate” and noted that mass deportations would, along with other federal policies, create “a very economically risky period in America.”
Concerning tariffs, Keller said the proposed import taxes “are neither good nor bad,” but also cautioned they would raise prices and could cause an economic downturn. Homebuilders have specifically decried planned Trump administration taxes on steel, aluminum and lumber, which will likely push up construction costs in the short term.
