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May Home Price Trends Reveal Las Vegas Takes the Lead in Real Estate Recovery

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Las Vegas yearly gains ramped up to 27.0 percent , surpassing the yearly gains of 25.7 percent in Phoenix. This is the first time since April 2012 that Phoenix has not led the top 50 major metro markets in yearly gains. While Las Vegas yearly gains continue to pick up steam, the market has a long road ahead. Current prices remain 57.1 percent below the peak and would need to climb another staggering 133.3 percent to reach peak values. It would take Las Vegas home prices nearly four years at the current annual growth rate of 27.0 percent to get back to 2006 levels. While this is unrealistic over the short or even mid-term horizon, it puts the current gains into context.

Phoenix on the other hand, has seen a slight moderating pattern over the last several months, a healthy move for a market that has been very hot over the last year. This market also has a long road ahead, with prices still 45.9 percent below their peak.

Further evidence of spring’s slightly positive impact: Severity of quarterly declines in the lowest performing markets subsided slightly in May, where only six out of 15 of the lowest performing markets saw declines and five of those saw less than 1.0 percent in losses.

Cleveland was the exception, where quarterly losses of 4.3 percent fueled yearly declines of 4.0percent . This market’s low price point of less than $75 PPSF and high REO saturation rate of 39.1 percent continue to drive volatile trends.

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