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Now that housing has entered a new stage in the healing process, local economic conditions are dictating the pace of recovery.

“That’s why the bubble states are no longer in the bottom tier and have moved ahead of the industrial Midwest,” he said.

The gradual and steady housing recovery now underway across the land will bring nationwide housing starts to 71 percent of normal by the fourth quarter of next year and 93 percent of normal by the end of 2015, Denk said.

Leading the way will be oil and gas producing states Texas, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Louisiana, Wyoming and Montana; and Iowa, supported by agricultural commodities.

In another way of looking at the long road back to normal, by the end of 2015 the top 20 percent of states will be back to normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 84 percent.

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